Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said strong Russian electronic interference may be causing military drones to drift into neighbouring NATO airspace as a string of incursions heightens security fears across Northern Europe.
Authorities in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are grappling with growing alarm after multiple suspected Ukrainian military drones crossed into their airspace, fuelling concerns that the war in Ukraine is increasingly spilling over into NATO’s northern frontier with Russia.
The incidents come as Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes targeting Russian oil shipping facilities around the Baltic Sea. Several drones have reportedly veered off course, triggering emergency alerts, fighter jet deployments and political fallout across the region.
In Latvia, the crisis contributed to the collapse of the government after mounting criticism over the handling of repeated drone incidents.
According to officials, the wave of incursions began escalating on March 25 when two suspected Ukrainian drones entered Estonia and Latvia through Russian territory. One struck a chimney at Estonia’s Auvere power station near the Russian border, while another crash-landed in Latvia. Lithuania had earlier reported a Ukrainian drone falling into a lake.
Between March 29 and 30, Finland reported a suspected violation of its airspace in the southeast of the country, prompting authorities to scramble F/A-18 fighter jets. One of the flying objects was later identified as a Ukrainian AN-196 drone.
Orpo suggested that heavy Russian electronic jamming may have diverted some drones into Finnish territory.
On March 31, Estonia and Latvia detected additional drone activity near their borders with Russia, while Finland’s border guard recovered a drone inside Finnish territory. Estonian authorities later discovered drone debris in Tartu County.
A day later, Estonia’s armed forces said drones detected in the country appeared to have originated from Ukraine and were likely intended for Russian targets.
Concerns deepened on May 7 after Latvia and Lithuania called on NATO to reinforce regional air defence systems following two more suspected drone incursions from Russia into Latvia. One exploded at an oil storage facility in the Latvian region of Rezekne, damaging four empty storage tanks.
On May 10, Latvia’s Defence Minister Andris Spruds resigned after Prime Minister Evika Siliņa said anti-drone systems had not been activated quickly enough. Ukraine later acknowledged the drones were Ukrainian but said Russian electronic warfare had redirected them.
Days later, Siliņa stepped down as prime minister after Spruds’ Progressives party withdrew support from the coalition government, triggering its collapse.
On May 15, Finnish authorities warned around 1.8 million residents in the wider Helsinki region to remain indoors over suspected drone activity. Air traffic at Helsinki airport was temporarily suspended while fighter jets were deployed.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb later said there was no direct military threat facing Finland.
Between May 17 and 18, explosives were discovered near the wreckage of a suspected Ukrainian military drone that crashed in Lithuania close to the Latvian and Belarusian borders. Lithuanian officials admitted the drone had not been detected when it entered the country.
On May 19, a Romanian NATO fighter jet shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia after it entered Estonian airspace from Russia.
Ukraine later apologised to Estonia and other Baltic allies, saying Russian electronic warfare had diverted the drone from its intended route. Kyiv also denied using Latvian or Estonian territory to launch attacks on Russia.
The following day, Lithuania issued an “air danger warning” after a drone was detected in its airspace. Residents in the capital, Vilnius, were urged to take shelter while flights at the city’s airport were suspended.
Lawmakers were reportedly moved to underground shelters inside parliament, while rail services were suspended and schools and daycare centres were directed to take children to safe locations as authorities evaluated the potential threat.
Officials said the drone’s origin remained unclear.
On May 21, Latvia’s military said at least one drone had breached the country’s airspace, prompting a response from NATO fighter jets. Residents living near the Russian and Belarusian borders were also urged to seek shelter as security agencies monitored developments.
